Victoria Real Estate Market
imposed stress tests for mortgages, higher interest rates,
speculation & vacant house taxes and seasonal changes are
combining to slow the our real estate market. But we need
to look closely at what a slower market means to Victoria.
The most quoted
figure is volume of sales. We are definably down in sales
numbers. 10% to 15% in recent months compared to 2017.
We are seeing
homes on the market longer and lots of price reduction. It
is easy to conclude that prices are also down 10% or 15%.
But that is not the case. On average the original listing
prices of homes are higher than last year but the homes are
selling close to 2017 prices. Month to month for October
2018 the benchmark house price is up 6.1% and benchmark condo
prices are up 9.8% compared to October 2017.
will continue to be lower than 2017 with prices stable or down a
little. By the time the spring market gets here buyers
will have adjusted to the new rules & higher interest rates and
we should see things pick up. We are not a large
market but we are the best place in Canada to live and there
will always be enough newcomers to keep our prices relatively stable.
Full Report & Graphs
My 2018 Calendar
I hope you enjoy my 2017 Calendar. 2018 is finished and
hopefully you have one by now. We had great sunny weather
in Spain in January. We did a week of leisure bicycling (www.andaluciancyclingexperience.com)with
the usual tourist stops (Barcelona, Granada, etc.) on before and
after. The weather was great, the food & wine good and it was a
relatively inexpensive holiday. Our fall trip to the UK included
an 8 day self-guided walk from Oxford to Bath and then a week at
Lavenham in Suffolk. The walk was one of the best holidays I can
I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the
trips. If you did not get a 2018 year and would like one of
these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or
I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post
but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more
time! “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing
more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the
photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas. Simply
http://myvictoria.ca/2018/ and share my travels.
Have a great New Year,
Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up
Victoria rental market published. The vacancy rate is
virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.
The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and
higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has
placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased
as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in
Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of October 2018 - We
seem to be settling into a balanced Market.
Sales volume continues to slide while new listing volume has
peaked. Prices have remained stable with homes Buyers perceived
as overpriced just sitting on the market.
This chart tracks the ratio
of total residential sales over total active residential
listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.
The active listing count
and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing
supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them
can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is
downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where
there is upward pressure on prices.
- below 10%, there is
downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)
- above 25%, there is
upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)
- in the 15-20% range,
there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)
Please call with any real
Victoria Real Estate Board
The Victoria real estate market’s
return to balance not linear, but also not unexpected
1, 2018 Victoria BC
- A total of 598
properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this
October, 9.9 per cent fewer than the 664 properties sold in October
of last year, but a 12.2 per cent increase from September 2018.
Sales of condominiums were down 15.5 per cent from last year in
October with 180 units sold, but up 20.8 per cent when compared to
September 2018. Sales of single family homes were down 14.7 per cent
from 2017 with 289 sold this October, 1.4 per cent more than the
"We continue to see the housing market shift into a more balanced
state, though the trajectory is not smooth," says Victoria Real
Estate Board President. "This month had slower sales compared to
last year and a slightly lower level of inventory coming into the
market, but it also had an increase in sales from last month, which
may surprise some people. The moderating changes over last year have
been punctuated with some competition and price pressure on lower
and mid-priced homes while the upper end of the market has softened
slightly. Right now pricing is key across all segments as we
transition to a more balanced market."
There were a total of 2,510 active listings for sale on the Victoria
Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of October
2018, an increase of 31.8 per cent compared to October 2017 but 5.1
per cent fewer than the month previous.
"The market is definitely reacting to the changes in mortgage
lending requirements," adds President Kerr. "Lending was made
tougher to dampen the market and these measures have certainly had
an impact on purchasing power. The threat of the looming Speculation
and Vacancy tax has also cooled development in our area, which is
unfortunate because the only way to create affordable homes in our
area is to build them. We hope that moving forward the municipal,
provincial and federal governments will work collaboratively to
enable more supply at all levels of housing by funding public /
private partnerships to support the increase of home stock in our
area. We hope that aside from taxation and mortgage rules,
governments will work together to ensure a future supply in our area
to stabilize prices in the long term."
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a
single family home in the Victoria Core in October 2017 was
$830,100, while the benchmark value for the same home in October
2018 increased by 6.1 per cent to $881,000, slightly lower than
September's value of $883,700. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a
condominium in the Victoria Core area in October 2017 was $457,500,
while the benchmark value for the same condominium in October 2018
increased by 9.86 per cent to $502,600, slightly less than
September's value of $503,000.
About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and
since that time has been a key player in the development of
standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the
professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of
the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last
century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those
working in the real estate industry.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our
The use of sale price
statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a
period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate
Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the
actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific
information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
B.C. Real Estate Association
Summer Home Sales Slow
to a Simmer
Vancouver, BC –October 11, 2018
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a
total of 5,573 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple
Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in September, a 33.2 per
cent decrease from the
same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was
$685,749, down 1.1 per cent from September 2017. Total sales dollar
volume was $3.8 billion, a 34 per cent decline from September 2017.
“BC home sales continue at a
slower pace compared to last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief
Economist. “The impact on affordability and purchasing power
caused by the mortgage stress test and moderately higher interest
rates are negating the effect of the extraordinarily strong
performance of BC’s economy over the last five years.”
Year-to-date, BC residential
sales dollar volume was down 21.3 per cent to $45 billion,
compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales
decreased 22.5 per cent to 63,251 units, while the average MLS®
residential price was up 1.5 per cent to $716,096.
Mortgage Rate Forecast
- March 2018
Vancouver, BC –March 2018
Mortgages rates returning to
B20 stress test prompts slow
start to 2018 for the Canadian economy
Trump trade tantrum may delay
Bank of Canada tightening
Some questions and comments
about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist,
Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist,
Housing Market Reacts
to Mortgage Stress Test
Vancouver, BC –November 8, 2018
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its
2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service®
(MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline
23 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 103,768
residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales
forecast to increase 12 per cent to 89,500 units in 2019. The
10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is
“The marked erosion of
affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress
test and rising interest rates continue to be a drag on the
housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.
“However, continuing strong performance in the economy combined
with favourable demographics is expected to push home sales above
their 10-year average in 2019.”
Despite the mortgage policy
drag on the sector, strong performance of the BC economy continues
to be highly supportive of housing demand. Five consecutive years
of above trend growth in the province has led to a high level of
employment and an unemployment rate that appears to be at a
The combination of fewer home
sales and a larger inventory of homes for sale has helped trend
most markets to balanced conditions. As a result, home price
growth has slowed considerably, and is expected to more closely
reflect overall consumer price inflation through 2019. In
addition, a record number of homes are under construction in BC,
which will provide for much needed expansion of the housing stock
and greater price stability.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation