A New Year and a
New Market for Victoria Real Estate
is a year that will be remembered by many as the year the
Victoria Market crashed. However, the reality is that it is the
year Victoria returned to a normal market ending an
unprecedented and unsustainable period of huge price increases.
The most mentioned statistic will be that sales volume dropped
more than 20% from 2017. Of more importance is the graph to the
right that shows the change in prices in various categories &
areas from one year ago. They all show price increases. Not the
kind of increases we saw in 2017, but there are no decreases in
our average price indexes.
It is easy to blame the market changes on government policies,
interest rates, etc. In the end our market, or any market is not
able maintain the huge volume of sales combined with yearly
double digit price increases indefinitely. Victoria is still the
best place to live and our unique market is not and will not be
seeing large price adjustments that Vancouver & Toronto are
inventories should continue to be much higher than 2017. Things
that effected 2018 like the government introduced stress test,
vacancy & foreign buyers taxes, rising interest rates, etc. will
be old news and accepted as market facts. There is pent up
demand and there are lots of home owners ready to sell. The
reality that buyers have less
money available coupled with the sellers realization that their
expectations have to be tempered, should lead to a steady more
balanced market in 2019.
Last year I felt we could have price increases in the 10% range
but we were in the 5% range this year thanks to government
interference. If the government keeps their hands off, we should
see a 3-5% rise in prices by the end of the year.
Please feel free to call or email with any Real Estate
250-588-6169 or Phil@MyVictoria.ca
Happy New Year,
Full Report & Graphs
My 2019 Calendar
This fall's trip to the UK included
an 8 day walk along the Cotswold Way. 102 miles from Chipping
Campton to Bath.
https://www.nationaltrail.co.uk/cotswold-way Like last
year our luggage was move along and all we had to do was walk
and find the best pub for lunch. The biggest difference
this year was the weather. Rain, 4 days of rain at the
start of the trip. An those were the longest and hilliest
days. It did not rain all day and it made the last 4 sunny
days all the more enjoyable. I love blue skies in my
calendar photos so all photos are from the last 4 days of the
I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the
trips. If you did not get a 2019 year and would like one of
these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or
I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post
but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more
time! “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing
more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the
photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas. Simply
http://myvictoria.ca/2019/ and share my travels.
Have a great New Year,
Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up
Victoria rental market published. The vacancy rate is
virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.
The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and
higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has
placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased
as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in
Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of December 2018 - We
are definitely settling into a balanced Market.
Almost a Buyers' market but the low inventory should keep us in a
balanced market for 2019. Prices have remained stable with homes
that Buyers perceived
as overpriced just sitting on the market.
This chart tracks the ratio
of total residential sales over total active residential
listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.
The active listing count
and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing
supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them
can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is
downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where
there is upward pressure on prices.
- below 10%, there is
downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)
- above 25%, there is
upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)
- in the 15-20% range,
there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)
Please call with any real
Victoria Real Estate Board
Victoria Real Estate Market
responds as expected to the changing market conditions of 2018
January 2, 2019 Victoria BC
- A total of 375
properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this
December, 18.8 per cent fewer than the 462 properties sold in
December 2017 and a 24.7 per cent decrease from November 2018. Sales
of condominiums were down 24.3 per cent from 2017 in December with
103 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 26.6 per cent
from December 2017 with 174 sold.
A grand total of 7,150 properties sold over the course of 2018, 20
per cent fewer than the 8,994 sold in 2017. 2018 sales came in very
close to the ten-year average of 7,351 properties sold. Condominium
sales totalled 2,162 in 2018, compared to 2,783 in 2017. Single
family home sales were down from 4,069 in 2017 to 3,187 in 2018.
"The story arc in real estate this year has been the impact of
government influence on a market which was showing signs of
levelling out through the latter part of 2017," says outgoing
Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "All levels of
government turned their focus to try to make housing more affordable
and attainable across the property spectrum. The federal
government's change to mortgage lending qualification rules this
year meant many consumers lost 20 per cent of their purchasing
power, which contributed to slowing down the pace of the market. On
a municipal level, we saw many councils activating how they can
influence affordable housing by leveraging current land assets,
acquiring new land and creating partnerships to bring new affordable
units to market - and that's a very exciting thing for our market in
the long term. The provincial government has also promised huge
investments into new affordable developments. These developments are
important to the long-term growth of our community, because the only
way to make more affordable housing in our area is to build it."
There were 1,988 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real
Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of December 2018,
a decrease of 15.2 per cent compared to the month of November but
43.6 per cent more than the 1,384 active listings for sale at the
end of December 2017.
The Multiple Listing Service®
Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the
Victoria Core in December 2017 was $832,000. The benchmark value for
the same home in December 2018 increased by 3.2 per cent to
$858,600, lower than November's value of $865,200. The MLS® HPI
benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in
December 2017 was $464,300, while the benchmark value for the same
condominium in December 2018 increased by 8.2 per cent to $502,400,
slightly more than November's value of $500,500.
"The market in 2019 will continue to be quieter than in previous
years, as buyers and sellers adjust to new market conditions and
government policies," adds President Kerr. "Inventory is still quite
low when you look at a longer range, which will continue to put
pressure on pricing. Our overall economy is predicted to slow
slightly, and that will likely mean a slower increase in interest
rates but also slower growth. The good news is that savvy buyers
will have more time to find their new homes, and that sellers will
be under less pressure if they are planning to move within our
market. Remember in evolving markets like ours, it's important to
enlist the services of a REALTOR® to help you navigate what may be
your largest transaction ever."
About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and
since that time has been a key player in the development of
standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the
professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of
the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last
century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those
working in the real estate industry.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our
The use of sale price
statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a
period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate
Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the
actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific
information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
B.C. Real Estate Association
BC Home Sales Decline
25% in 2018
Vancouver, BC – January 15, 201
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a
total of 78,345 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple
Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2018, a decline of 24.5 per cent from the
103,758 units sold in 2017. The annual average MLS® residential
price in BC was $712,508, an increase of 0.4 per cent from $709,601
recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $55.8
billion, a 24.2 per cent decline from 2017.
“BC home sales fell below the
10-year average of 84,800 units in 2018,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA
Chief Economist. “The sharp decline in affordability caused by the
B20 mortgage stress test is largely to blame for decline in
consumer demand last year.”
A total of 3,497 MLS®
residential unit sales were recorded across the province in
December, down 39.1 per cent from December 2017. The average MLS®
residential price in BC was $695,647, a decline of 5.2 per cent
from December 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $2.4 billion, a
42.3 per cent decline during the same period.
Total active residential
listings were up 33.3 per cent to 27,615 units in December, the
highest December inventory since 2014 when 33,995 active
residential listings were recorded.
Mortgage Rate Forecast
- March 2018
Vancouver, BC –December 2018
Oil prices prompt plunging bond
Canadian economy slowing down
How high can they go? Is the
Bank of Canada already finished with rate increases?
Some questions and comments
about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist,
Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist,
Housing Market Reacts
to Mortgage Stress Test
Vancouver, BC –November 8, 2018
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its
2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service®
(MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline
23 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 103,768
residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales
forecast to increase 12 per cent to 89,500 units in 2019. The
10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is
“The marked erosion of
affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress
test and rising interest rates continue to be a drag on the
housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.
“However, continuing strong performance in the economy combined
with favourable demographics is expected to push home sales above
their 10-year average in 2019.”
Despite the mortgage policy
drag on the sector, strong performance of the BC economy continues
to be highly supportive of housing demand. Five consecutive years
of above trend growth in the province has led to a high level of
employment and an unemployment rate that appears to be at a
The combination of fewer home
sales and a larger inventory of homes for sale has helped trend
most markets to balanced conditions. As a result, home price
growth has slowed considerably, and is expected to more closely
reflect overall consumer price inflation through 2019. In
addition, a record number of homes are under construction in BC,
which will provide for much needed expansion of the housing stock
and greater price stability.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation