A Market in
I am constantly
being asked what is the market doing. The simplest way to
put it is that our market peaked in 2017 for a number of reasons
but the Sellers have not received the memo. Many are still
expecting selling prices based on a 100 or 200K about
assessments which have been rising every year by leaps & bounds.
You will see signs in the ground longer and price reductions.
But the asking prices are often wishful thinking and the final
price will reflect 2017 price levels. The market is changing and
prices are no longer going up exponentially every year.
question is where will the Victoria market land! Will it
be down 30% like predictions for Vancouver & the lower mainland?
I think our market will slow but prices will not be effected a
huge amount. We will be close to 2017 prices.
Premier areas will still go up a little and areas that are less
desirable my go down a little but overall we will weather the
storm. As I have said many times, we are not a large
market but we are the best place in Canada to live and there
will always be enough newcomers to keep our prices stable.
Full Report & Graphs
My 2018 Calendar
I hope you enjoy my 2017 Calendar. 2018 is finished and
hopefully you have one by now. We had great sunny weather
in Spain in January. We did a week of leisure bicycling (www.andaluciancyclingexperience.com)with
the usual tourist stops (Barcelona, Granada, etc.) on before and
after. The weather was great, the food & wine good and it was a
relatively inexpensive holiday. Our fall trip to the UK included
an 8 day self-guided walk from Oxford to Bath and then a week at
Lavenham in Suffolk. The walk was one of the best holidays I can
I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the
trips. If you did not get a 2018 year and would like one of
these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or
I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post
but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more
time! “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing
more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the
photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas. Simply
http://myvictoria.ca/2018/ and share my travels.
Have a great New Year,
Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up
Victoria rental market published. The vacancy rate is
virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.
The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and
higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has
placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased
as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in
Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of September 2018 - The
Sellers' Market continues to sliding down to a Buyers' Market.
Sales volume continues to slide while listings continue to
increase in number. Prices have remained stable with downward
pressure starting to creep into the market in the high end
This chart tracks the ratio
of total residential sales over total active residential
listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.
The active listing count
and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing
supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them
can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is
downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where
there is upward pressure on prices.
- below 10%, there is
downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)
- above 25%, there is
upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)
- in the 15-20% range,
there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)
Please call with any real
Victoria Real Estate Board
Victoria Real Estate Market Simmers
at the end of Summer
1, 2018 Victoria BC
- A total
of 533 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board
region this September, 16.7 per cent fewer than the 640 properties
sold in September of last year, and a 10.3 per cent decrease from
August 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 30.4 per cent from last
year in September with 149 units sold. Sales of single family homes
were down 9.2 per cent from 2017 with 285 sold this September.
"This year's housing market has continued to behave as we've
expected, moderating after the record setting pace of 2016 and
adjusting to various government measures such as tightening mortgage
qualification rules that were intended to cool the market," says
Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "We continue to see
a reduction in sales when we compare to recent years and prices
stabilizing across the market, with some variation in value in
niche, higher end homes."
There were a total of 2,646 active listings for sale on the Victoria
Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of September
2018, an increase of 5 per cent compared to the month of August and
33.9 per cent more than the 1,976 active listings for sale at the
end of September 2017.
"If you are considering buying or selling a home, you need to
understand your local market, particularly in the context of your
property type and price point," adds President Kerr. "Micro markets
in our area behave very differently as they are influenced by
different pressures. The under $800,000 housing market in some areas
is under tremendous pressure as many buyers compete for these homes.
The multimillion-dollar market in other areas is currently
experiencing less pressure and we can see price flexibility coming
into play in the 1.5 million dollar plus market. And although we saw
a bump in inventory at the start the year, those inventory levels
have stabilized as well. So buyers still face a market with much
less inventory available than the historical average. Your local
REALTOR® can help you understand the best way forward for your
selling or buying plans based on current and granular data and
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a
single family home in the Victoria Core in September 2017 was
$832,000, while the benchmark value for the same home in September
2018 increased by 6.2 per cent to $883,700, slightly lower than
August's value of $888,300. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a
condominium in the Victoria Core area in September 2017 was
$457,700, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in
September 2018 increased by 9.9 per cent to $503,000, exactly the
same as August's value.
About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and
since that time has been a key player in the development of
standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the
professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of
the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last
century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those
working in the real estate industry.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our
The use of sale price
statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a
period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate
Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the
actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific
information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
B.C. Real Estate Association
Summer Home Sales Slow
to a Simmer
Vancouver, BC –October 11, 2018
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a
total of 5,573 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple
Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in September, a 33.2 per
cent decrease from the
same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was
$685,749, down 1.1 per cent from September 2017. Total sales dollar
volume was $3.8 billion, a 34 per cent decline from September 2017.
“BC home sales continue at a
slower pace compared to last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief
Economist. “The impact on affordability and purchasing power
caused by the mortgage stress test and moderately higher interest
rates are negating the effect of the extraordinarily strong
performance of BC’s economy over the last five years.”
Year-to-date, BC residential
sales dollar volume was down 21.3 per cent to $45 billion,
compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales
decreased 22.5 per cent to 63,251 units, while the average MLS®
residential price was up 1.5 per cent to $716,096.
Mortgage Rate Forecast
- March 2018
Vancouver, BC –March 2018
Mortgages rates returning to
B20 stress test prompts slow
start to 2018 for the Canadian economy
Trump trade tantrum may delay
Bank of Canada tightening
Some questions and comments
about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist,
Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist,
Housing Market Reacts
to Mortgage Stress Test
Vancouver, BC –August 20, 2018
The British Columbia
Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2018 Third Quarter
Housing Forecast Update today.
Multiple Listing Service®
(MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline
21 per cent to 82,000 units this year, after recording 103,768
residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to
increase 8 per cent to 88,700 units in 2019. The 10-year average
for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.
“The BC housing market is
grappling with a sharp decline in affordability caused by tough
B20 stress test rules for conventional mortgages,” said Cameron
Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While these rules have had a
negative effect on housing demand across the country, the impact
has been especially severe in BC’s large urban centres because of
already strained housing affordability.”
In spite of the policy-driven
downturn in housing demand, strong fundamentals continue to
underpin the market. Demographics are highly favourable,
especially the millennial generation who are now entering their
household-forming years. In addition, low unemployment is leading
to significant upward pressure on wages and, by extension,
household wealth and confidence.
The pullback in BC home sales
is helping alleviate a chronic shortage of supply. After trending
at decade lows, active listings in the province were up nearly 20
per cent in July. The combination of slower housing demand and an
increase in the inventory of homes for sale has trended most
markets toward balanced conditions. This means more selection for
home buyers, fewer multiple offer situations and less upward
pressure on home prices.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation