Monthly Real Estate Update

Philip Illingworth
Victoria
British Columbia

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Clover Point, the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Olympic Mountains     

Month-to-Date Victoria Market Statistics

January 14  2019

 

Month to Date
January 2019
End of
January 2018
Net Unconditional Sales: 93 431
New Listings: 274 772
Active Listings: 1,884 1,491

Left Column: stats so far this month.  Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year.
*This will be updated weekly at www.AllVictoriaBCRealEstate.com & www.MyVictoria.ca

 

MyVictoria Report  

November 8, 2018


A New Year and a New Market for Victoria Real Estate

2018 is a year that will be remembered by many as the year the Victoria Market crashed. However, the reality is that it is the year Victoria returned to a normal market ending an unprecedented and unsustainable period of huge price increases. The most mentioned statistic will be that sales volume dropped more than 20% from 2017. Of more importance is the graph to the right that shows the change in prices in various categories & areas from one year ago. They all show price increases. Not the kind of increases we saw in 2017, but there are no decreases in our average price indexes.

It is easy to blame the market changes on government policies, interest rates, etc. In the end our market, or any market is not able maintain the huge volume of sales combined with yearly double digit price increases indefinitely. Victoria is still the best place to live and our unique market is not and will not be seeing large price adjustments that Vancouver & Toronto are experiencing.

2019 inventories should continue to be much higher than 2017. Things that effected 2018 like the government introduced stress test, vacancy & foreign buyers taxes, rising interest rates, etc. will be old news and accepted as market facts. There is pent up demand and there are lots of home owners ready to sell. The reality that buyers have less money available coupled with the sellers realization that their expectations have to be tempered, should lead to a steady more balanced market in 2019.

Last year I felt we could have price increases in the 10% range but we were in the 5% range this year thanks to government interference. If the government keeps their hands off, we should see a 3-5% rise in prices by the end of the year.

Please feel free to call or email with any Real Estate questions.
250-588-6169 or Phil@MyVictoria.ca

Happy New Year,

Philip Illingworth

Full Report & Graphs

My 2019 Calendar - The Cotswold Way


 
       


This fall's trip to the UK included an 8 day walk along the Cotswold Way. 102 miles from Chipping Campton to Bath. https://www.nationaltrail.co.uk/cotswold-way  Like last year our luggage was move along and all we had to do was walk and find the best pub for lunch.  The biggest difference this year was the weather.  Rain, 4 days of rain at the start of the trip.  An those were the longest and hilliest days.  It did not rain all day and it made the last 4 sunny days all the more enjoyable.  I love blue skies in my calendar photos so all photos are from the last 4 days of the trip.


I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the trips. If you did not get a 2019 year and would like one of these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or email.

I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more time!  “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas.  Simply visit http://myvictoria.ca/2019/ and share my travels.

Have a great New Year,

Philip Illingworth


 

                                     Victoria Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up

Annual Victoria rental market published.  The vacancy rate is virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.  The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in supply.  Details

Philip Illingworth

 

Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of December 2018 - We are definitely settling into a balanced Market. Almost a Buyers' market but the low inventory should keep us in a balanced market for 2019. Prices have remained stable with homes that Buyers perceived as overpriced just sitting on the market.

This chart tracks the ratio of total residential sales over total active residential listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.

The active listing count and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where there is upward pressure on prices.

- below 10%, there is downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)

- above 25%, there is upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)

- in the 15-20% range, there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)

Please call with any real estate questions.

Philip Illingworth

 

                                 Victoria Real Estate Board

 

Victoria Real Estate Market responds as expected to the changing market conditions of 2018

January 2, 2019 Victoria BC - A total of 375 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this December, 18.8 per cent fewer than the 462 properties sold in December 2017 and a 24.7 per cent decrease from November 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 24.3 per cent from 2017 in December with 103 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 26.6 per cent from December 2017 with 174 sold.

A grand total of 7,150 properties sold over the course of 2018, 20 per cent fewer than the 8,994 sold in 2017. 2018 sales came in very close to the ten-year average of 7,351 properties sold. Condominium sales totalled 2,162 in 2018, compared to 2,783 in 2017. Single family home sales were down from 4,069 in 2017 to 3,187 in 2018.

"The story arc in real estate this year has been the impact of government influence on a market which was showing signs of levelling out through the latter part of 2017," says outgoing Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. "All levels of government turned their focus to try to make housing more affordable and attainable across the property spectrum. The federal government's change to mortgage lending qualification rules this year meant many consumers lost 20 per cent of their purchasing power, which contributed to slowing down the pace of the market. On a municipal level, we saw many councils activating how they can influence affordable housing by leveraging current land assets, acquiring new land and creating partnerships to bring new affordable units to market - and that's a very exciting thing for our market in the long term. The provincial government has also promised huge investments into new affordable developments. These developments are important to the long-term growth of our community, because the only way to make more affordable housing in our area is to build it."

There were 1,988 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of December 2018, a decrease of 15.2 per cent compared to the month of November but 43.6 per cent more than the 1,384 active listings for sale at the end of Decem
ber 2017. 

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in December 2017 was $832,000. The benchmark value for the same home in December 2018 increased by 3.2 per cent to $858,600, lower than November's value of $865,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in December 2017 was $464,300, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in December 2018 increased by 8.2 per cent to $502,400, slightly more than November's value of $500,500.

"The market in 2019 will continue to be quieter than in previous years, as buyers and sellers adjust to new market conditions and government policies," adds President Kerr. "Inventory is still quite low when you look at a longer range, which will continue to put pressure on pricing. Our overall economy is predicted to slow slightly, and that will likely mean a slower increase in interest rates but also slower growth. The good news is that savvy buyers will have more time to find their new homes, and that sellers will be under less pressure if they are planning to move within our market. Remember in evolving markets like ours, it's important to enlist the services of a REALTOR® to help you navigate what may be your largest transaction ever."

About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and since that time has been a key player in the development of standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those working in the real estate industry.
 

View our press release and summary here.

View our complete statistical package here.

Notes for Interpreting Our Statistics

The use of sale price statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.

                                 

               

 

  B.C. Real Estate Association

 

BC Home Sales Decline 25% in 2018

Vancouver, BC – January 15, 201   The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 78,345 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2018, a decline of 24.5 per cent from the 103,758 units sold in 2017. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $712,508, an increase of 0.4 per cent from $709,601 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $55.8 billion, a 24.2 per cent decline from 2017.

“BC home sales fell below the 10-year average of 84,800 units in 2018,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The sharp decline in affordability caused by the B20 mortgage stress test is largely to blame for decline in consumer demand last year.”

A total of 3,497 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded across the province in December, down 39.1 per cent from December 2017. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $695,647, a decline of 5.2 per cent from December 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $2.4 billion, a 42.3 per cent decline during the same period.

Total active residential listings were up 33.3 per cent to 27,615 units in December, the highest December inventory since 2014 when 33,995 active residential listings were recorded.

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast - March 2018

Vancouver, BC –December 2018  

The Highlights:

  • Oil prices prompt plunging bond yields

  • Canadian economy slowing down

  • How high can they go? Is the Bank of Canada already finished with rate increases?

Some questions and comments about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist, cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca; Brendon Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist, bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca.

Full Details

 

 

Housing Market Reacts to Mortgage Stress Test

Vancouver, BC –November 8, 2018   The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 23 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 103,768 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 12 per cent to 89,500 units in 2019. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.

“The marked erosion of affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress test and rising interest rates continue to be a drag on the housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, continuing strong performance in the economy combined with favourable demographics is expected to push home sales above their 10-year average in 2019.”

Despite the mortgage policy drag on the sector, strong performance of the BC economy continues to be highly supportive of housing demand. Five consecutive years of above trend growth in the province has led to a high level of employment and an unemployment rate that appears to be at a cyclical low.

The combination of fewer home sales and a larger inventory of homes for sale has helped trend most markets to balanced conditions. As a result, home price growth has slowed considerably, and is expected to more closely reflect overall consumer price inflation through 2019. In addition, a record number of homes are under construction in BC, which will provide for much needed expansion of the housing stock and greater price stability.

 

Full Details

 

 

 

 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 
 

More Market Information:

 


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Philip Illingworth
DFH Real Estate Ltd.
Phone        250-477-7291
Toll Free    800-668-2272
Web  www.MyVictoria.ca

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