Monthly Real Estate Update

Philip Illingworth
Victoria
British Columbia

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The Bay Street Bridge crossing the Gorge Waterway      

Month-to-Date Victoria Market Statistics

August 20,  2018

 

Month to Date
August 2018
End of
August 2017
Net Unconditional Sales: 359 736
New Listings: 628 1,035
Active Listings: 2,547 1,917

Left Column: stats so far this month.  Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year.
*This will be updated weekly at www.AllVictoriaBCRealEstate.com & www.MyVictoria.ca

 

MyVictoria Report  

July 15, 2018


A Market in Transition

I am constantly being asked what is the market doing.  The simplest way to put it is that our market peaked in 2017 for a number of reasons but the Sellers have not received the memo.  Many are still expecting selling prices based on a 100 or 200K about assessments which have been rising every year by leaps & bounds. You will see signs in the ground longer and price reductions.  But the asking prices are often wishful thinking and the final price will reflect 2017 price levels. The market is changing and prices are no longer going up exponentially every year.

The important question is where will the Victoria market land!  Will it be down 30% like predictions for Vancouver & the lower mainland?  I think our market will slow but prices will not be effected a huge amount.  We will be close to 2017 prices.  Premier areas will still go up a little and areas that are less desirable my go down a little but overall we will weather the storm.  As I have said many times, we are not a large market but we are the best place in Canada to live and there will always be enough newcomers to keep our prices stable.

Full Report & Graphs

My 2018 Calendar

                

I hope you enjoy my 2017 Calendar. 2018 is finished and hopefully you have one by now.  We had great sunny weather in Spain in January. We did a week of leisure bicycling (www.andaluciancyclingexperience.com)with the usual tourist stops (Barcelona, Granada, etc.) on before and after. The weather was great, the food & wine good and it was a relatively inexpensive holiday. Our fall trip to the UK included an 8 day self-guided walk from Oxford to Bath and then a week at Lavenham in Suffolk. The walk was one of the best holidays I can remember.


I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the trips. If you did not get a 2018 year and would like one of these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or email.

I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more time!  “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas.  Simply visit http://myvictoria.ca/2018/ and share my travels.

Have a great New Year,

Philip Illingworth


 

                                     Victoria Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up

Annual Victoria rental market published.  The vacancy rate is virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.  The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in supply.  Details

Philip Illingworth

 

Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of July 2018 - The Sellers' Market is rapidly sliding down to a Buyers' Market. Sales volume continues to slide while listings continue to increase in number. The biggest cause is that our market peaked in 2017 but most Sellers have not got the message yet!

This chart tracks the ratio of total residential sales over total active residential listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.

The active listing count and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where there is upward pressure on prices.

- below 10%, there is downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)

- above 25%, there is upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)

- in the 15-20% range, there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)

Please call with any real estate questions.

Philip Illingworth

 

                                 Victoria Real Estate Board

 

Victoria Housing Market Still Finding its Balance

August 1, 2018 Victoria BC - A total of 651 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this July, 17.6 per cent fewer than the 790 properties sold in July of last year, and an 8.1 per cent decrease from June 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 22.6 per cent from last year in July with 188 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 16.5 per cent from 2017 with 340 sold this July.

"We are in a different market now than what we have seen for the past two years," says Victoria Real Estate Board President. "And while we see inventory creeping up after the drought in 2017, especially in the multi-million-dollar range, across our region there are 30 per cent fewer homes listed for sale under $750,000 than this time last year. This means that if you are shopping in the $750,000-or-less bracket, you are in a fast-moving market with low inventory. For example, of the 176 single family detached properties sold in our Core and Malahat regions during the month of July, only 59 (34%) were listed for $750,000 or less. And of those, 28 (47%) sold at or over list price. This illustrates the high demand for homes at or below this price point, and the pressure that is still pushing that segment of our market. If you are looking for a home priced at $1.5 million or above, there is more selection than last year and those homes are sitting on the market longer. For the first seven months of 2017 there were 481 single family detached properties for sale listed at $1.5 million or above. For the same time period in 2018, there were 664 properties for sale in this range, an increase of 27.6 per cent."

There were a total of 2,607 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of July 2018, an increase of 0.5 per cent compared to the month of June and 35.7 per cent more than the 1,921 active listings for sale at the end of July 2017.

"Each year we tend to see a plateau in inventory over the summer months," adds President Kerr. "It is possible that we will see more inventory come into the market through the fall when there is often a burst of activity in our market, but it's hard to predict how that inventory might be priced. Ideally, we will see more inventory come in at under the $750,000 level to help push our housing market into more balanced territory across all segments."

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in June 2017 was $829,600, while the benchmark value for the same home in June 2018 increased by 7.2 per cent to $889,600, higher than May's value of $878,100. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in June 2017 was $430,400, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in June 2018 increased by 15.4 per cent to $496,500, slightly higher than May's value of $493,900.

About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and since that time has been a key player in the development of standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those working in the real estate industry.

 

View our press release and summary here.

View our complete statistical package here.

Notes for Interpreting Our Statistics

The use of sale price statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.

                                 

               

 

  B.C. Real Estate Association

 

Summer Home Sales Slow to a Simmer

Vancouver, BC –August 13, 2018   The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,055 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in July, a 23.9 per cent decrease from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $695,990, down 0.4 per cent from July 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $4.9 billion, a 24.2 per cent decline from July 2017.

“The BC housing market continues to grapple with the sharp decline in affordability caused by tough new mortgage qualification rules,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, less frenetic housing demand has created more balanced market conditions in many regions, leading to fewer multiple offers and more choice for consumers.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 18.9 per cent to $37 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales decreased 20.6 per cent to 50,926 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 2.1 per cent to $725,639.

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast - March 2018

Vancouver, BC –March 2018  

The Highlights:

  • Mortgages rates returning to long-run level

  • B20 stress test prompts slow start to 2018 for the Canadian economy

  • Trump trade tantrum may delay Bank of Canada  tightening

Some questions and comments about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist, cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca; Brendon Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist, bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca.

Full Details

 

 

Housing Market Reacts to Mortgage Stress Test

Vancouver, BC –August 20, 2018   The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2018 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 21 per cent to 82,000 units this year, after recording 103,768 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 8 per cent to 88,700 units in 2019. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 21 per cent to 82,000 units this year, after recording 103,768 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 8 per cent to 88,700 units in 2019. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.

“The BC housing market is grappling with a sharp decline in affordability caused by tough B20 stress test rules for conventional mortgages,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While these rules have had a negative effect on housing demand across the country, the impact has been especially severe in BC’s large urban centres because of already strained housing affordability.”

In spite of the policy-driven downturn in housing demand, strong fundamentals continue to underpin the market. Demographics are highly favourable, especially the millennial generation who are now entering their household-forming years. In addition, low unemployment is leading to significant upward pressure on wages and, by extension, household wealth and confidence.

The pullback in BC home sales is helping alleviate a chronic shortage of supply. After trending at decade lows, active listings in the province were up nearly 20 per cent in July. The combination of slower housing demand and an increase in the inventory of homes for sale has trended most markets toward balanced conditions. This means more selection for home buyers, fewer multiple offer situations and less upward pressure on home prices.

Full Details

 

 

 

 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 

More Market Information:

 


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Philip Illingworth
DFH Real Estate Ltd.
Phone        250-477-7291
Toll Free    800-668-2272
Web  www.MyVictoria.ca

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